Indian stock market: 8 key things that changed for market overnight – Gift Nifty, India inflation to MSCI index rejig

Indian stock market: The domestic equity market indices are expected to open on a muted note Tuesday amid mixed cues from global markets.

Asian markets traded mostly higher, while the US stock market ended mixed overnight as investors await key economic data this week, especially consumer prices, to gauge the outlook for US Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Money markets are evenly betting on a 25- or 50-basis-point cut in US interest rates in September, expecting a total easing of 100 bps by the end 2024, CME’s FedWatch Tool showed.

On the domestic side, Indian stock market investors will react to the latest retail inflation and factory output data along with stock specific actions may be seen due to MSCI index August rejig.

On Monday, the Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, ended marginally lower amid cautious sentiment after the release of Hindenburg report against Sebi Chief Madhabi Puri Buch in Adani Group case.

The Sensex fell 56.99 points, or 0.07%, to close at 79,648.92, while the Nifty 50 settled 20.50 points, or 0.08%, lower at 24,347.00.

“The Indian market concluded relatively flat, with its initial path being eclipsed by continuation of the Adani-Hindenburg-SEBI saga. However, the market tried to brush away these noises, taking positive cues from global markets. Moreover, the domestic market is anticipating ease in CPI inflation, which is going to be further supported by a good monsoon. Yet, the upside risk remains, given firm oil prices and volatility in food inflation,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

Here are key global market cues for Sensex today:

Asian Markets

Asian markets traded mostly higher on Tuesday led by Japanese shares.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rallied 2.53% to breach 36,000 for the first time since August 2, while the Topix index surged 2.16%. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.2%, while the Kosdaq declined 1.57%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures indicated a higher opening.

Gift Nifty Today

Gift Nifty was trading around 24,335 level, a discount of nearly 25 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a flat-to-negative start for the Indian stock market indices.

Wall Street

US stock market ended mixed on Monday ahead of the latest economic data this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 140.53 points, or 0.36%, to 39,357.01, while the S&P 500 rose 0.23 points to end at 5,344.39 points. The Nasdaq Composite ended 35.31 points, or 0.21%, higher at 16,780.61.

Starbucks shares gained 2.58%, KeyCorp stock price jumped 9.1%, while Hawaiian Electric share price plunged 14.45%.

MSCI Index Rejig

A total of seven stocks including Vodafone Idea and Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd. (RVNL) shares will be included in the MSCI India Index, which is part of the MSCI Global Standard Index, in its August reshuffle. Bandhan Bank will be excluded from the index.

India Inflation, IIP data

India’s retail inflation fell to a 59-month low of 3.5% year-on-year (YoY) in July, according to government data, benefiting from a high base effect. The inflation rate has dipped below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target of 4% for the first time in almost five years.

India’s factory output growth measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose 4.2% in June on an annual basis as against 6.2% in May. IIP had grown by 4.0% in June 2023.

Japan Producer Inflation

Inflation as measured by Japan’s producer prices accelerated in July for the sixth consecutive month. The measure of input prices for Japanese firms gained 3.0% from a year earlier, the BOJ reported. The gain missed exceeded economists’ expectations of a 3.1% increase. From the prior month, prices rose by 0.3%, matching the consensus estimate.

Oil Prices

Crude oil prices traded lower, breaking a five-day streak of gains.

Global benchmark Brent crude futures dropped 0.5% to $81.89 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.5% to $79.63 a barrel. Brent had gained more than 3% on Monday, while US crude futures had risen more than 4%.

Currency Market

The dollar was in limbo, while a rally in Japanese stocks helped staunch the bleeding in yen carry trades. The greenback was idling at 147.17 yen, having briefly touched a one-week high of 148.23 overnight before profit-taking emerged, Reuters reported. The euro stood at $1.0931, while the dollar index was flat at 103.08.

(With inputs from Reuters)

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