RBA under increased pressure as job numbers surge in Australia

Australia’s employment numbers exceeded expectations for the second consecutive month in June, indicating a tight labor market and leading to an increase in the local currency. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, net employment rose by 32,600 in June, following a strong increase of 76,600 in May. This surpassed the market forecast of a 15,000 increase.

The unemployment rate remained at 3.5 percent, slightly above the record low of 3.4 percent in October last year. The Australian dollar increased by 0.8 percent to $0.6829, ending a four-session losing streak, while three-year bond futures fell by 12 ticks to 96.1.

The strength of the labor market suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia may need to take further measures to control inflation, as it raised interest rates by 400 basis points to 4.1 percent in just 14 months. Market expectations for a rate hike in August increased from 35 percent to 42 percent following the release of the jobs data.

Incoming RBA Governor Michele Bullock has stated that the unemployment rate would need to rise to around 4.5 percent in order to curb inflation.

Despite a decline in job advertisements in June, the labor market has remained strong, with figures showing a 52 percent increase compared to pre-COVID levels.



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