Increase in emissions and health risks caused by droughts in Western states.

During periods of drought in the American West, rivers and reservoirs become depleted, causing a decline in hydropower generation. To compensate for the lack of hydropower, utilities resort to burning coal, oil, or natural gas, resulting in increased carbon emissions and air pollution. This study conducted by Stanford University reveals the significant social and economic costs associated with these consequences of drought. Over the past two decades, the 11 Western states have incurred losses in the tens of billions of dollars due to the increase in fossil fuel generation resulting from drought. In California alone, the economic damages during the period of 2012 to 2016 exceeded $5 billion. These findings highlight the need to accurately account for the effects of drought in order to properly assess the impacts of global warming and the value of investments in combating climate change.

The study estimates that between 2001 and 2021, the total health and economic damages caused by drought-induced fossil electricity generation in the Western states of the US amounted to $20 billion. Carbon emissions accounted for the majority of the damage, amounting to $14 billion. Additionally, poor air quality caused by additional air pollution resulted in damages worth $5.1 billion, while methane leakage accounted for damages worth just under $1 billion. Furthermore, the impacts of drought-induced fossil fuel generation are not limited to local areas but extend across regions due to interconnected energy systems. This highlights the need for a comprehensive approach to address the impacts of drought and the associated energy system challenges.

While the focus of the study was on the American West, it underscores the global issue of increased drought risks faced by countries relying on hydropower. In regions where coal-fired power plants are the likely replacement for hydropower, the economic and health damages resulting from deteriorated air quality and greenhouse gas emissions are expected to be even higher than those in the Western states of the US. Therefore, it is crucial to expand renewable energy sources and improve energy storage capabilities to minimize reliance on fossil fuels and mitigate the impacts of future droughts.

The authors of the study emphasize the urgent need for a greater expansion of renewable energy alongside improved energy storage to reduce emissions and limit the risks associated with drought. This will play a critical role in achieving net-zero emission goals and addressing the challenges posed by climate change.

More information:

Minghao Qiu et al, Drought impacts on the electricity system, emissions, and air quality in the western United States, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2023). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2300395120

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