The year 2024 will be turbulent because of geopolitical developments over the past year though India can be confident about facing challenges because of political and economic strengths, external affairs minister S Jaishankar said on Wednesday.
As the rise of India continues, the response from nations around the world can be classified in three categories – those which will respect India but be uneasy, those which will admire and seek to emulate the country, and those which will seek to work out new deals with the country, he said at an event to mark the launch of his new book Why Bharat Matters.
Also read: ‘If we were more Bharat…’: Jaishankar’s fresh attack on Nehru’s China policy
Jaishankar said his book juxtaposes the evolution and growth of India with events in the epic Ramayana and takes a closer look at the transformation of India’s foreign policy, especially over the past decade. This has been a period of globalisation, rebalancing, multipolarity, a deeper impact of technology, and the competitiveness of international relations, he said.
Recent years have also seen India contend with a set of shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Ukraine conflict, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and the economic and political impact of climate disruptions.
Jaishankar acknowledged that 2024 would be as turbulent as the preceding year because of the influence of similar factors.
“I do think that 2024 will continue to be turbulent, that many of the same factors which drove 2023 would remain very much in play. I think…there are going to be a lot of democratic events in other countries, there could even be transition,” he said.
“But today, where we are positioned politically [and] economically, when you look at a lot of these societal changes and capabilities that have grown…I do think we have reached that point where we can look at 2024, despite being a very turbulent year, with a fair deal of confidence.”
In his opening remarks, Jaishankar acknowledged that globalisation is “for real” and “irreversible” but has also “evoked very sharp awareness about the need for strategic autonomy in many countries”. This can be achieved by building more reliable and resilient supply chains, by addressing the digital domain in a more transparent and trusted manner, by de-risking the concentrations that have emerged in the past three decades, and by creating more engines of growth. “My point is really that economic choices cannot be divorced from the strategic context,” he said.
While India builds up its manufacturing capabilities, an area ignored in the early period of the country’s economic reforms, it can also contribute to the global workplace with greater skills and mobility. “My contention is to have to realise Atmanirbhar Bharat, it is first of all important to be Bharat. That unless we are clear who we are, where we are coming from, we will never be clear about where we are going. That is, in a sense, the underlying message of my book,” he said.
Jaishankar referred to “some inflection points” and moments of salience for India in recent years, such as the scrapping of Article 370 of the Constitution and the changes on the borders with China. India is also experiencing “attacks from beyond our borders which are often ideological and agenda-driven”, he added.
He also referred to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s impact on foreign policy and India’s quest to be a “vishwamitra” or a friend of the world. “Different people have given it different descriptions, somebody called it multi-vector,multi-alignment. But I would say the idea is really to have the maximum goodwill and the minimum adversaries,” he said.
The book also gives special attention to the evolution of the Quad, the grouping comprising India, Australia, Japan and the US, and India’s relations with China. It also looks at a series of “what ifs” or how things could have gone differently in the foreign policy domain in India had chosen a different path. In this context, Jaishankar referred to the difference in the approach towards China between the country’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, and the first home minister, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel.
India would have had a “less rosy view” of its relationship with China, especially in the first decade after independence, he said, referring to the record of exchanges between Nehru and Patel on this issue.
Aisha Patel is a dedicated Indian correspondent with a deep understanding of the nation’s diverse affairs. With a background in Indian culture, politics, and current events, she provides in-depth analysis and timely reporting on domestic issues within India.
