(Bloomberg) — Nigeria would see a boost to its economy equivalent to a quarter of the $142.7 billion cumulative output benefit expected by 2030 for countries where malaria is endemic if World Health Organization goals are met, according to a study.
The gross domestic product of Africa’s most populous country alone over the period would be increased by a total of $34 billion, from the target being attained as productivity would increase and health related costs would fall, researchers at Oxford Economics Africa wrote in a report. Africa would account for 88% of the benefit across the 85 nations afflicted by the disease.
The World Health Organization aims to reduce both the incidence of malaria and mortality from the disease by 90% in the next six years. While recently released vaccines hold out promise for combating the disease in coming years, progress has stalled as funding has dropped, and as scientists look for new solutions to counter growing resistance to existing treatments.
“People who fall sick from malaria, particularly young children, require rapid treatment and care,” the researchers said in the report released Wednesday by Malaria No More UK and the RBM Partnership To End Malaria. “This is often paid for through out-of-pocket expenditure and increases the burden of unpaid care on families, primarily mothers, which holds back their potential for economic engagement.”
The vast majority of the almost 620,000 malaria deaths a year are in sub-Saharan Africa, where bed nets and indoor spraying of insecticide are the primary tools to curb infections.
Even as the WHO 2030 malaria goals are off-track, eight African countries – including Ghana, Cameroon and Malawi – now offer recently approved malaria vaccines as part of their childhood immunization programs. At least 10 more countries are likely to introduce the inoculations this year.
The research showed a 10% drop in malaria cases would result in a 0.11 percentage-point increase in annual GDP growth per capita.
Trade would increase if malaria incidence fell with exports from Nigeria, which has the the most cases and deaths of the mosquito-borne disease, expected to be $4.8 billion higher over the period, the researchers said.
“The research also showed reaching this goal could generate an additional $31 billion in exports to some of the most affected malaria endemic countries in Africa; with an almost $4 billion rise for G7 countries, almost $1.5 billion for the US and more than $450 million for the UK,” the researchers said in comments sent to Bloomberg.
Africa is facing an additional challenge. As the region least responsible for climate change, it’s one of the hardest hit by adverse weather caused by a warming world. Climate change not only increases the risk of infectious disease spread, it also makes it difficult to predict malaria patterns.
International vaccine alliance Gavi will publish its “investment opportunity” on June 20, which will show how much funding is needed and it will be the first fund-raising effort by the group with two vaccines available.
“The analysis shows that investing in malaria control and elimination programs doesn’t just save lives — it’s also economically smart, for malaria-endemic countries and their international partners,” the researchers said.
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Rohit Malhotra is a medical expert and health journalist who offers evidence-based advice on fitness, nutrition, and mental well-being. His articles aim to help readers lead healthier lives.
