A month ago, as the results of the 2024 European Parliament elections started pouring in, Marine Le Pen’s nationalist party, National Rally, was seen sweeping the polls with 31% of the votes. In contrast, the coalition of parties led by French President Emmanuel Macron was trounced, receiving less than 15% vote share.
It was then, many argued that the moment had finally arrived for Marine Le Pen, an aspirant for the French presidency in the last three contests in 2012, 2017, and 2022.
Later in June, following President Macron’s gamble of calling a snap parliamentary election, a rising National Rally was still seen to be leading ahead of other parties and alliances in France.
Probably for the first time in recent past, the National Rally, a nationalist party that began as a far-right outfit, led the polls in France, nearly doubling its support, leaving President Macron reeling. The National Rally got more than 33% of the votes cast, according to the French Interior Ministry.
However, after the second and final round of the election on July 7, the results did not go Marine Le Pen’s and her National Rally’s way. The bottle of champagne, resting gleefully on ice in the National Rally office, was popped, but not with the cheer that was expected.
The National Rally party has suffered a significant defeat in the French parliamentary elections, finishing third behind the ultra-Left coalition and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist bloc.
One would wonder how the party, after back-to-back stellar performances, and assertions of victory from Marine Le Pen and her protégé Jordan Bardella, faced the setback, leaving their dream in fragments. Several factors contributed to the unexpected poll outcome for the resurgent National Rally.
CENTRE-LEFT NEXUS DIVIDED LE PEN’S VOTES
One key reason for the National Rally’s defeat could be attributed to the strategic manoeuvring of centrist and leftist opponents, “who pulled out more than 200 candidates from three-way races to avoid splitting the anti-RN vote”, according to a Reuters report.
The National Rally’s young president, Jordan Bardella, voiced his discontent with the outcome, accusing President Macron of steering France towards instability and aligning it with the so-called “extreme left”.
Bardella, National Rally’s president, even denounced the “nexus” as an “unnatural alliance” on Sunday as the results started to pour in.
“Marine Le Pen’s right-wing party won massively in the first round. So Macron colluded with the far-left to block the right from winning by tactically withdrawing candidates for the second round,” alleged Swedish journalist Peter Imanuelsen in a post on X.
PREMATURE ANNOUNCEMENT AND ARROGANCE
The National Rally’s overconfidence in projecting an absolute majority might have alienated voters too.
Marine Le Pen had confidently predicted that her party would triumph with an outright majority, but this optimism quickly turned into disbelief as the election results unfolded.
“What arrogance of Marine Le Pen who considers that the National Rally has already won the elections in contempt of French voters. What arrogance to want to systematically rewrite the Constitution in advance”, Jean-Noël Barrot, the Secretary of State for European Affairs had earlier hit out at theRN, and its leader, La Pen, before the elections in an interview with the French news channel TF1 info.
A National Rally candidate echoed sentiments of arrogance in the party, acknowledging the damaging fallout and suggesting that voters may have perceived the party as “arrogant” in predicting an absolute majority, reported news agency Reuters.
“I thought it was strange that they said that,” said Florent de Kersauson, who lost his seat against a pro-Macron candidate. “It seemed like something that was very hard to achieve.”
This perceived invincibility, however, has now been dented.
NATIONAL RALLY NOMINEES’ XENOPHOBIC REMARKS
In what could be an example of the National Rally (RN) digging its own grave, experts and reports pointed out internal flaws within the party, such as xenophobic remarks made by some candidates, casting doubt on the party’s renewed outlook and efforts driven by Marine La Pen.
“What happened is also that RN candidates themselves showed in this campaign that they either were not ready or had in their ranks candidates that are antisemitic, xenophobic or homophobic,” Pollster Brice Teinturier told France 2 television.
“When President Emmanuel Macron declared the dissolution of the Assemblée Nationale on June 9, all the RN had to do was “press the button” to trigger its “Matignon plan,” named after the residence of France’s Prime Minister,” reported French daily Le Monde on June 5.
The RN even nominated “dozens of racist, anti-Semitic, xenophobic candidates; former members of violent nationalist organisations; and people who had been convicted by the courts”, for the Parliamentary election, the report added.
The second round of the French election saw higher voter turnout compared to both the first round and previous elections. This increase might have been driven by a scare among the electorate after reports indicated that the National Rally was leading in the polls following the first round.
Despite the setback, Bardella and Le Pen seemingly remain resolute, latching on the party’s increased parliamentary numbers and their determination to persist until seizing power.
Le Pen, once considered too extreme to come close to power, has already hinted at a presidential bid in 2027. She may now view this setback as merely a postponement of her eventual victory, but she will have to wait a few more years for another opportunity. That opportunity might be in 2027, as France holds its presidential election.
Vikram Sharma is a globe-trotting journalist with a global perspective on international events. His articles offer readers a global perspective on international events, exploring complex geopolitical issues and providing insights into the world’s most pressing challenges.
