BOK Likely to Maintain Base Rate at 3.5% on Thursday, Delaying Rate Cut Call until 2024

People walk on a zebra crossing in front of the buliding of Bank of Korea in Seoul, South Korea. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji/File photo

The Bank of Korea (BOK) is expected to maintain its key policy rate at 3.5 percent for the entire year, according to a Reuters poll of economists. While inflation remains high in major economies, South Korea saw a decrease in inflation last month, bringing it closer to the central bank’s target of 2 percent.

The BOK, one of the first to raise rates in August 2021, paused tightening in February due to the impact of its previous rate hikes on the heavily indebted households in the country. All 46 economists in the poll predicted no change to the 3.5 percent base rate at the BOK’s upcoming meeting.

“With monetary policy settings already in restrictive territory, inflation easing and the KRW stabilizing, there is little impetus for the central bank to hike rates further,” said Irene Cheung, senior Asia strategist at ANZ. However, the BOK is expected to delay rate cuts due to the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve and elevated domestic inflation expectations.

Median forecasts suggest that interest rates will remain unchanged until the end of 2023, followed by a 25 basis

 

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