Policymakers in New Delhi are keeping a close watch on Sunday’s general elections in Bangladesh in which Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will face one of her toughest tests despite the virtual absence of the main opposition party.
Hasina, 76, is seen as one of India’s strongest strategic partners in a neighbourhood that has witnessed several political upheavals in the past year amid China’s persisting efforts to project its influence in the region. She has been in power for 15 consecutive years to become Bangladesh’s longest-serving leader.
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The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by ailing former premier Khaleda Zia, has decided to boycott the elections on January 7, just as it did in 2014, after the ruling Awami League rejected its demand to hold the polls under a caretaker government. However, this has not paved the way for walkover by Hasina, who is eyeing an unprecedented fourth term.
Many lawmakers and ministers of the Awami League are expected to be affected by an anti-incumbency wave, especially on the back of a recent economic downturn, people familiar with the matter said on condition of anonymity. While there is little doubt that the Awami League will emerge as the largest party, there are questions as to whether the party’s margin of victory will be as impressive as in the past two elections, they said.
“The Awami League is not expected to win as many seats as in past elections and will have to depend on the numerous independent candidates who are also contesting the election,” one of the people cited above said.
Close to 100 independent candidates, including many Awami League parliamentarians who were denied official nominations, are expected to hold the key to the formation of the next government, the people said. The presence of these independent candidates also helps the Awami League respond to accusations from the US, the European Union (EU) and rights groups about the elections being free and fair, the people said.
The elections on Sunday will choose 300 out of the 350 members of the Jatiyo Sangshad or national parliament, and the remaining 50 members are reserved for women who will be selected by the ruling party or coalition. Women make up about half of the nearly 120 million eligible voters, but only 5.1% of the 1,896 candidates in the fray are women.
“The independent candidates are set to play a crucial role in the formation of the next government, especially in propping up the Awami League, as several MPs and ministers may fall by the wayside,” a second person said.
Key issues
Hasina has been largely credited with turning around Bangladesh’s $416-billion economy, once among the world’s fastest growing, but recent months have witnessed protests, both by opposition parties and workers of the crucial garments industry, who have been demanding higher wages amid a rise in the cost of living. At least four garment industry workers and 11 opposition activists have died and dozens more injured in violence during these protests, and the BNP has accused the government of detaining thousands of party workers.
The economy has also been hit by costly energy imports amid a weakening domestic currency and dwindling dollar reserves. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has extended a $4.7-billion bailout to Bangladesh, has so far provided access to $468 million.
India has provided Bangladesh three lines of credits worth around $8 billion over the past eight years for the development of infrastructure, including roads, railways, shipping and ports, and New Delhi has a crucial stake in stability in the neighbouring country, especially to ensure security in the strategic northeastern states.
The Indian government has also provided grants to Bangladesh for several infrastructure and connectivity projects, including the Akhaura-Agartala rail link that was launched last November, the dredging of waterways in Bangladesh, and the construction of the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline for oil.
India’s gentle push
Many in the foreign policy and security establishments in New Delhi also have strong memories of the blind eye turned to the activities of anti-India militant groups by the BNP when it was in power. They also point to the action taken by Hasina’s administration to crack down on the activities of these groups, which once operated training camps and transported arms through routes in Bangladeshi territory.
It was in this context that the Indian side stepped in when the US sought to crank up pressure on the Awami League government last year on the holding of a free and fair elections. In September 2023, the US announced a visa ban on Bangladeshi officials accused of undermining democratic processes.
It is understood that the Indian side raised the issue with the US at the 2+2 dialogue of defence and foreign ministers in November, especially the prospect of Washington’s actions inadvertently strengthening the hands of extremist and radical elements in Bangladesh.
“A message was conveyed that the Awami League and its leadership are ensuring stability and holding the region together, especially given the fragile situation in Myanmar, and the possible fallout for India’s northeastern states,” the first person cited above said.
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Following the 2+2 meeting, there had been a visible reduction in efforts by the US envoy to Bangladesh to push for free and fair elections, the people said. The US envoy had angered the Bangladesh government by his actions, such as directly engaging with the election commission, which was perceived in some quarters as interference in domestic politics.
“We have been very consistently saying [that the] elections in Bangladesh are a domestic affair of Bangladesh. It is for the people of Bangladesh to decide their future,” external affairs ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal told a regular media briefing on Thursday.
Sameer Patil, a Mumbai-based national security analyst, said that from point of view of India’s security, the Awami League continues to be the best bet as the “other options are simply terrible”. He added: “At the same time, India should be mindful of the domestic political dynamics and anti-incumbency sentiments, which may queer the pitch and derail the momentum of bilateral security cooperation, particularly in counterterrorism.”
Vikram Sharma is a globe-trotting journalist with a global perspective on international events. His articles offer readers a global perspective on international events, exploring complex geopolitical issues and providing insights into the world’s most pressing challenges.
