Just 6 Lakh Votes In 30-Odd Seats Could Have Earned BJP A Majority On Its Own, But Razor-Thin Losses Spoil The Party

This Lok Sabha election, the NDA secured 292 out of 543 seats, surpassing the majority mark by 20. However, the BJP, with 240 seats, fell short of achieving a majority on its own, a stark contrast to its stellar performances in 2014 and 2019. As we analyse the final tally of numbers and the party’s performance in close contests, it appears that an additional 6,26,311 votes across 32 seats could have secured a majority for the BJP.

In Chandigarh, the BJP lost by a razor-thin margin of 2,504 votes, while in Hamirpur, Uttar Pradesh, the gap was a mere 2,629 votes. Similar narrow defeats were seen in places like Salempur, Uttar Pradesh (3,573 votes), Dhule, Maharashtra (3,831 votes), and Dhaurahra, Uttar Pradesh (4,449 votes). Then there were some other seats, where the margin was higher than that in Chandigarh and Dhule, yet slender in the larger picture like South Goa (13,535 votes), Thirupathi, Andhra Pradesh (14,569 votes), and Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala (16,077 votes).

The highest margins among these narrow losses were in constituencies such as Fatehpur, Uttar Pradesh (33,199 votes), and Kheri, Uttar Pradesh (34,329 votes). Keeping in mind the future elections, these are some of the seats, where BJP might have to convert narrow defeats into victories.

Check The Tally

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Overall, the BJP saw a 21 per cent drop in its seat share while Congress registered an impressive 90 per cent hike. It is to be noted that BJP contested on 441 seats this time, while Congress fielded candidates in 328.

On further analysis, it can be seen that of the 168 seats where the BJP fielded incumbent MPs, the party won 111 of them, totalling 66 per cent of the seats. On the other hand, in the 132 seats, where sitting MPs were dropped, the party emerged victorious in 95 of them, which is 72 per cent of the total. This indicates the party was able to curb anti-incumbency in some seats by replacing candidates.

However, the shortfall from the majority mark in Parliament is likely to make the BJP dependent on the whims of shifty allies such as Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu.