This truncated week will mark the monthly F&O series expiry for November. The Nifty 50 has rallied 950 points this series, even though it is stuck in a 200-point range over the last two weeks. Even as the index remains rangebound, the broader markets have been outperformers in November, as the Midcap index has gained nearly 4,000 points since October 27.
The upcoming week will also result in some volatility not just because of the monthly expiry, but due to the counting down to the state election results, which will be reported on Sunday, December 3. The market might also react to S&P Global Ratings increasing India’s GDP growth projection for financial year 2024 but slashing the same for financial year 2025.
Despite the lacklustre trading on Friday and through most of last week, foreign investors turned net buyers on the final day of the week along with domestic institutions. However, one needs to keep in mind that the number is also skewed due to the Paytm block deal, where Berkshire Hathaway made a complete exit after booking a loss worth nearly ₹800 crore.
19,875 would act as a fresh breakout level for the trend following traders, above which, the index can rally towards 19,950 – 20,000 levels, said Amol Athawale of Kotak Securities. He advises contra traders to go long on the index near 19,680 levels, with a strict 30-point stop loss.
Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said that the market is waiting for breakout traders beyond the 19,650 – 19,850 range. He believes that the upcoming state election results will act as a trend decider as a move above 19,900 will take the Nifty towards a new all-time high, while a break below 19,600 will open a near-term downward correction.
According to LKP Securities’ Rupak De, as long as there is no breakout above the 19,850 – 19,900 range, the Nifty is likely to remain sideways. On the downside, 19,700 is likely to act as a key support, below which, the market may see some correction.
The Nifty Bank has finally started to show some signs of momentum on Thursday and Friday after gaining around 300 points over the last two trading sessions. The index also managed to eke out weekly gains after being an underperfomer compared to the Nifty this series.
44,000 continues to remain a pivotal point for the index and a decisive move above it can trigger a substantial rally for the index, said Kunal Shah of LKP Securities. On the downside, support is seen at 43,500.
Athawale of Kotak said that the Nifty Bank has formed a reversal pattern at the support level of 43,350, which support further upside from current levels. He expects the index to move towards 44,300. The uptrend will be vulnerable below the 43,350 mark.
What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?
Nifty 50’s November futures shed 3.4% in Open Interest on Friday. Their current rollovers position staands at 22%. They are currently trading at a premium of 32.25 points from 66.75 points earlier. On the other hand, the Nifty Bank added 2.4% in Open Interest on Friday with its current rollover position at 32%. Nifty 50’s Put-Call Ratio is currently at 0.99 from 1.11 earlier.
RBL Bank, Manappuram Finance, India Cements and MCX are out of the F&O Ban list from today’s session.
BHEL and Granules India are back in the F&O ban list, joining Balrampur Chini, HPCL, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Zee Entertainment and Hindustan Copper.
Nifty 50 on the Call side for November 30 expiry:
For this Thursday’s weekly and monthly F&O expiry, the Nifty 50 call strikes between 19,800 and 20,000 have seen Open Interest addition with the former seeing the maximum addition in Open Interest.
Strike | OI Change | Premium |
19,800 | 29.21 Lakh Added | 93.5 |
19,900 | 27.82 Lakh Added | 45 |
19,850 | 23.8 Lakh Added | 66.7 |
20,000 | 17.88 Lakh Added | 18 |
Nifty 50 on the Put side for November 30 expiry:
On the Put side, the Nifty 50 strikes between 19,600 and 19,800 have seen Open Interest addition for this Thursday’s expiry.
Strike | OI Change | Premium |
19,800 | 10.66 Lakh Added | 65.9 |
19,750 | 6.98 Lakh Added | 47.7 |
19,600 | 11.01 Lakh Added | 16 |
Here are the stocks that saw some short covering during Friday’s session, meaning an increase in price but decline in Open Interest:
Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
BHEL | 6.18% | -41.41% |
Colgate-Palmolive | 0.36% | -32.25% |
NMDC | 0.29% | -31.11% |
Dr Lal Pathlabs | 2.41% | -28.59% |
Ashok Leyland | 0.25% | -25.86% |
Here are the stocks that saw unwinding of long positions on Friday, meaning a decline in both price and Open Interest:
Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
Muthoot Finance | -0.57% | -19.40% |
UPL | -1.44% | -19.37% |
REC | -0.89% | -19.28% |
Bajaj Auto | -0.22% | -19.24% |
Berger Paints | -0.43% | -18.85% |
Here are the stocks to watch out for ahead of Tuesday’s trading session:
First Published: Nov 27, 2023 7:45 PM IST
Omprakash Tiwary is a business writer who delves into the intricacies of the corporate world. With a focus on finance and economic landscape. He offers readers valuable insights into market trends, entrepreneurship, and economic developments.