Narendra Modi will this month be sworn in as India’s Prime Minister for a historic third time, a News18 Mega Exit Poll indicated on Saturday, predicting between 305 and 315 Lok Sabha seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party and 355 to 370 overall for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the just-concluded elections, with the votes to be counted on June 4.
According to the survey, the Congress may get only about 62-72 seats in the elections, while its INDIA bloc could end up with a tally of 125-140.
Parties outside the two alliances could net 42-52 seats.
North-South narrative collapse?
The exit poll indicates the BJP may largely maintain its dominance in bastions like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Assam, and the national capital.
It also predicts an improved performance by the NDA in the south and West Bengal. The BJP is even expected to open its account in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
What happened in 2019
In 2019, exit polls predicted an average of 306 seats for the NDA and 120 for the UPA. The actual results were significantly higher for the NDA, which won 352 seats (with the BJP alone securing 303), while the UPA won only 93 seats (with the Congress getting 52).
This time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set a target of over 400 seats for the NDA, with the BJP aiming for more than 370 seats.
Exit poll methodology
The News18 Poll Hub survey covered all 518 seats in 21 major states, which account for 95% of Lok Sabha constituencies in the country. In each Lok Sabha constituency, 180 interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire, which was translated into 11 regional languages. For phases one to six, the interviews were conducted the ‘day after’, as it is known to yield more reliable responses, and the traditional exit poll – asking people coming out of the polling booth – was carried out for Phase 7.
A total sample size of 93,240 across 21 states was planned, but over 95,000 was achieved. In each Lok Sabha constituency, three Vidhan Sabha constituencies were covered, with 10 polling booths in each selected through random sampling. Around each polling station, trained investigators conducted 15 door-to-door interviews – one eligible respondent with an inked finger per household. In the case of the exit poll, near each polling station, 15 interviews were conducted of people coming out after casting their votes, with every fifth person stopped for an interview.
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On-spot checks by senior field managers and executives, geo-tagging of interviews, and telephonic back-checks for 20% of the sample in each state were among the many steps taken to maintain quality.
Check detailed seat predictions based on Exit Poll Results 2024 LIVE . Get minute-by-minute updates on the exit polls from Andhra Pradesh.
first published: June 01, 2024, 22:02 IST
Aisha Patel is a dedicated Indian correspondent with a deep understanding of the nation’s diverse affairs. With a background in Indian culture, politics, and current events, she provides in-depth analysis and timely reporting on domestic issues within India.
