We are into the final four days of the February F&O series and it has been one full of records for the Nifty. The index would like to maintain this momentum going into the expiry week as well. Friday’s session was a rangebound one for the Nifty as the index traded in a narrow, 100-point band. It nearly scaled the 22,300 mark on the upside, but reversed from an intraday high of 22,297.
For the week though, the index managed weekly gains, its fourth in the last five weeks. For the February series, the index has gained over 850 points so far.
This will be the first positive series of the year after the 426 points that the Nifty lost in January. This will also reverse the seasonality factor of the February series, as it will be the first positive February F&O series in three years.
Towards the end of the upcoming week, the markets will also react to provisional business numbers that some companies release on a monthly basis, along with the manufacturing PMI data and Auto Sales for the month of February.
For Friday’s trading session, both foreign and domestic institutions were net buyers in the cash market.
Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said that the near-term uptrend of the Nifty remains intact, although he sees a minor dip in the upcoming week with the index having faced resistance at the 22,250 – 22,300 range. “That could be a buy on dips opportunity,” he added. Immediate downside support is at 22,040.
The Nifty’s move in the week gone by has strengthened the bias to anticipate the index to rise further towards 22,400 and 22,800 levels in the coming days with near-term support maintained at the 22,000 mark, according to Prabhudas Lilladher’s Vaishali Parekh.
Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities expects the bullish sentiment to continue till the Nifty trades above 22,000 and that can take the index towards levels of 22,400. It is only below 22,000 where the sentiment would change, taking the index down to 21,875 or even 21,800.
The Nifty Bank has now underperformed the Nifty for three days in a row, though it did manage to hold on to the weekly gains as well. The banking index has also gained in three out of the last four weeks, though the index has not managed a weekly close above 47,000 for nearly two months now.
The Nifty Bank has an immediate hurdle at 47,100, above which, the upside towards 48,000 will open up, according to Kunal Shah of LKP Securities. He sees any dip towards the support zone of 46,500 as an ideal opportunity to initiate long positions for the 48,000 target.
Prabhudas Lilladher’s Vaishali Parekh though believes that the Nifty Bank will need a decisive move above 47,400 to establish further conviction for upward targets of 48,650 and 49,750 in the coming days.
What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?
Nifty 50’s futures shed 1% in Open Interest across series on Friday. Current rollovers are at 28.2%. They are currently trading at a premium of 16.15 points compared to 25.8 points earlier. On the other hand, Nifty Bank’s futures added 1.6% in Open Interest and current rollovers are at 25.9%. Nifty 50’s Put-Call Ratio is now at 1.02 from 1.19 earlier.
Canara Bank has entered the F&O ban, while Indus Towers, NALCO, and Bandhan Bank are out of the ban.
Aditya Birla Fashion, SAIL, Hindustan Copper, Zee Entertainment, Biocon, Balrampur Chini, GMR Airports, GNFC, RBL Bank, Ashok Leyland, Piramal Enterprises and PVR Inox continue to remain in the F&O ban list.
Nifty 50 on the Call side for February 29 expiry:
For this week’s monthly F&O expiry, the Nifty 50 Call strikes between 22,300 and 22,500 have seen Open Interest addition, while the 22,100 strike saw shedding.
Strike | OI Change | Premium |
22,300 | 29.1 Lakh Added | 114.35 |
22,500 | 27.4 Lakh Added | 44.5 |
22,400 | 18.2 Lakh Added | 74.1 |
22,100 | 4.7 Lakh Shed | 226.5 |
Nifty 50 on the Put side for February 29 expiry:
On the Put side, the Nifty 50 strikes between 22,200 and 22,300 have seen Open Interest addition for this Thursday’s monthly expiry.
Strike | OI Change | Premium |
22,200 | 14.9 Lakh Added | 133.15 |
22,300 | 12.8 Lakh Added | 181.7 |
22,250 | 10 Lakh Added | 156.15 |
These are the stocks that saw short covering during Friday’s trading session, meaning an increase in price but decrease in Open Interest:
Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
Vodafone Idea | 6.40% | -29.62% |
Wipro | 0.59% | -15.51% |
Dixon Tech | 1.02% | -15.32% |
United Spirits | 0.46% | -14.95% |
Indus Towers | 6.69% | -14.53% |
These stocks saw unwinding of long positions during Friday’s trading session, meaning a decrease in both price and Open Interest:
Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
HDFC Bank | -0.07% | -13.83% |
Bajaj Auto | -0.76% | -12.91% |
Aurobindo Pharma | -0.31% | -12.74% |
MCX | -0.33% | -10.69% |
Britannia | -0.61% | -10.64% |
These are the stocks to watch out for ahead of Monday’s trading session:
First Published: Feb 25, 2024 3:09 PM IST
Omprakash Tiwary is a business writer who delves into the intricacies of the corporate world. With a focus on finance and economic landscape. He offers readers valuable insights into market trends, entrepreneurship, and economic developments.