Credit: Shutterstock
In late July, a groundbreaking study published in Nature Communications revealed a concerning risk to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a critical ocean system that brings warm water up the North Atlantic. The study warned that without significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, the AMOC could collapse by 2095. This new research provided a more precise time estimate for a collapse, ranging between 2025 and 2095, with the most likely year being 2057. The potential consequences of such a collapse are dire, with Europe experiencing a drop in temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees, leading to catastrophic impacts on life as we know it.
The Conversation recently interviewed physicist Peter Ditlevsen and statistician Susanne Ditlevsen, the researchers behind the study, to gain further insight into their findings. One topic discussed was the confusion surrounding the collapse of the Gulf Stream and the collapse of the AMOC. While the general public may conflate these terms, the researchers emphasized that it is simply a matter of semantics. Whether referred to as the AMOC or the Gulf Stream, the point remains that a current bringing warm water up the North Atlantic is at risk of collapse. However, it should be noted that the Gulf Stream itself is driven by wind and the rotation of the Earth, making it less susceptible to collapse. Nevertheless, the researchers acknowledge that this misconception can be harmful, as it may lead some to dismiss their study.
Furthermore, the interview addressed the inaccuracies in how the researchers’ confidence interval was portrayed. The range provided (2025-2095) does not imply an equal probability across the entire interval. The researchers find it highly unlikely for a collapse to occur as early as 2025. Estimating the tails of the distribution, which represent the smaller probabilities at the extremes, is challenging. However, the central estimate of a collapse occurring around mid-century carries the highest risk if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated.
In terms of the potential consequences if the AMOC were to collapse in 2057, Peter Ditlevsen explained that the climate shift would be rapid but not immediate. Europe would experience a significant cooling, with England resembling Northern Canada. Additionally, the tropical heat from the Pacific Ocean, which would no longer be transported to the North Atlantic, would remain in the tropics, affecting the El Niño system. This could exacerbate the warming trends we are currently witnessing.
Susanne Ditlevsen emphasized the high level of uncertainty associated with the exact temperature variations and other impacts that would arise from a collapse. However, the overarching message is that the implications would be devastating, necessitating major changes in how we live and conduct agriculture. The researchers expressed concern for the three billion people living in tropical regions and the challenges they would face with prolonged periods of extreme heat.
When asked about their expectations at the start of the project, Peter Ditlevsen revealed the goal of adding weight to the IPCC’s assessment with robust methodology and observations. However, their models pointed to an earlier collapse than the IPCC’s predictions, sparking controversy. Despite the criticism, the researchers believe it is important to share their findings, acknowledging that they are not definitive and can be improved upon with more data.
Finally, the interview touched on the need for future research in understanding the AMOC. Peter Ditlevsen discussed the importance of studying paleoclimatic records to gain insights into past climate changes, particularly ice ages. He also highlighted the challenge of modeling nonlinear phenomena and tipping points, which are becoming increasingly relevant with the occurrence of more frequent extreme weather events.
In conclusion, the research conducted by Peter Ditlevsen and Susanne Ditlevsen sheds light on the potential collapse of the AMOC and its catastrophic consequences. The interview provided clarification on misconceptions and emphasized the need for further research and measurements to better understand this critical ocean system.
Denial of responsibility! SamacharCentrl is an automatic aggregator of Global media. In each content, the hyperlink to the primary source is specified. All trademarks belong to their rightful owners, and all materials to their authors. For any complaint, please reach us at – [email protected]. We will take necessary action within 24 hours.
Shambhu Kumar is a science communicator, making complex scientific topics accessible to all. His articles explore breakthroughs in various scientific disciplines, from space exploration to cutting-edge research.
