Two months after the dreaded solar storm struck Earth and shocked scientists, a solution seems at hand. Folks at Aberystwyth University have done some rocket science and say they can do solar storm prediction even before it has left the Sun.
Can solar storm prediction become so accurate that researchers know the exact time it will strike Earth even before the storm itself has left the Sun? Yes, say researchers. (Pixabay)
Solar storm prediction currently is based on data. It is not doing a great job, as became clear recently. However, there is always a greater scope to get more and more data. And now, it has been reported that solar storm prediction will become more accurate than it ever was before. Better late than never! A huge number of lacunae had allowed scientists to miss the severity of the record-breaking solar storm in May. This was a severe lapse and it looks like scientists are looking to fill the gaps in the information that was laid bare in public much to everyone’s embarrassment.
Notably, the solar storm that struck Earth on May 10 was not correctly analysed as being anything more than a moderate one. And yet, when it struck Earth, it sparked a geomagnetic storm that shattered records and sparked auroras, the beautiful lights that are supposed to be restricted to the Northern hemisphere, also appear as far south as the Indian sub-continent. These geomagnetic storms can knock out railways, submarine cables, power lines, satellites, oil rigs and pipelines and much more. Therefore this miss could have proved catastrophic for Earth.
The Sunspot that generated the solar flares that carried the dangerous coronal mass ejections (CMEs) was so powerful that it even lasted longer than the full circle that the Sun made on its axis. When it again came face to fafce with earth, it pumelled the planet again, but not with great severity.
But now,solar storm prediction science is likely to get more robust. So, what are space weather forecasters getting that they did not have before?
According to research carried out at the Aberystwyth University, how fast the CME travel can now be predicted much more accurately, thereby making solar storm prediction easier and faster and more accurate. That in effect signals that adequate warning time can be provided to satellite, power grid, oil, Internet, electricity providers to take precautions well before the geomagnetic storm is sparked thereby saving them from destruction or damage. In fact, they will be able to predict the exact time a geomagnetic storm is set to start.
Significantly, the May 10 storm was caused by a cannibal CME. This gets created when slower moving CME are overtaken and gobbled up by the fast moving CME and the merged entity, that becomes exponentially more powerful, strikes the Earth together.
The step by step process starts this way: A Sunspot appears on the surafce of the Sun. It generates a solar flare that travels at light speed and hits Earth within 8 minutes. The solar flares themselves can cause geomagnetic storms. The solar flare itself packs a component called CME that takes days to hours to arrive at Earth. And it holds the greatest danger.
The researchers who did the study now say that it is possible to predict when a CME will hit Earth right from the point it is generated in a solar flare on the Sun. The researchers looked at the height at which the megnetic field turns unstable and creates a CME and its speed. In effect, researchers can calculate the exact moment the CME will hit Earth even before it has exited the Sun!
Watch CME sparked by Sun headed for Earth: Video
How will height of CME be measured? Harshita Gandhi, a solar physicist at Aberystwyth University said, “By measuring how the strength of the magnetic field decreases with height, we can determine this critical height.”
And the CME speed? She “added, “This insight allows us to predict the CME’s speed and, consequently, its arrival time on Earth, even before the CME has fully erupted.”
Shambhu Kumar is a science communicator, making complex scientific topics accessible to all. His articles explore breakthroughs in various scientific disciplines, from space exploration to cutting-edge research.
