Stock market today: Sensex crashes 3%, Nifty 50 drops 2%; 5 factors why the Indian stock market is falling

Stock market today: Indian stock market benchmarks, the Sensex and the Nifty 50 crashed up to 3 per cent in early trade on Monday, August 5, mirroring the global trend after the US recession fears mounted and rising tensions in the Middle East kept investors on edge.

An across-the-board selloff hit the Sensex hard. The Sensex opened at 78,588.19 against its previous close of 80,981.95 and soon crashed 3 per cent to the level of 78,580.46. On the other hand, the Nifty 50 opened at 24,302.85 against its previous close of 24,717.70 and dropped over 2 per cent to the level of 24,192.50.

Around 9:45 am, the BSE Sensex was 1.90 per cent down at 79,442, while the Nifty 50 was 2 per cent down at 24,232. The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices were down over 2 per cent each at that time.

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The overall market capitalisation of the firms listed on the BSE dropped to nearly ₹447 lakh crore from nearly ₹457 lakh crore in the previous session, making investors lose nearly ₹10 lakh crore within an hour of the trade.

“The global market is reeling as bears enter with a cocktail of bad news. The initial catalyst was the fear of a reverse yen carry trade following an interest rate hike in Japan. This was compounded by fears of a recession in the USA after extremely poor job data, which spooked market sentiment. China and Europe are already grappling with slowdowns, and escalating geopolitical tensions are adding further pressure on the markets,” said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart.

Here are five key factors that seem to have dealt a severe blow to the Indian stock market:

1. US Recession fears

Fears of a looming recession in the US have given a severe jolt to the risk appetite of investors globally after July payroll data last Friday showed the US unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3 per cent last month against 4.1 per cent in June. July marked the fourth consecutive monthly increase in the unemployment rate.

“The rally in the global stock markets has been driven mainly by consensus expectations of a soft landing for the US economy. This expectation is now under threat with the fall in US job creation in July and the sharp rise in US unemployment rate to 4.3 per cent,” said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.

According to a Bloomberg report, Goldman Sachs economists have increased the probability of a recession in the US to 25 per cent from 15 per cent in the next 12 months.

Amid the recession fears, experts see high chances of rate cuts by the US Fed this year. Some say the Fed may cut rates cumulatively by 100 bps this year in September, November and December.

JPMorgan experts see a 50 bps rate cut in September and another 50 bps cut in November.

2. Rising tensions in the Middle East

According to media reports, Iran has vowed to take revenge after Israel killed Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh. Haniyeh was killed when he was in Iran to attend the inauguration of newly elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

As Mint reported earlier, the rising threats and provocative actions from both sides have heightened fears of an imminent war. The United States is reinforcing its military presence in the region in response to the escalating situation.

Investors across the globe are keenly observing the evolving situation. If the war escalates from the current levels, it will be hit market sentiment strongly.

3. Stretched valuation

The Indian stock market’s current valuation is stretched and experts say the market is ripe for a healthy correction.

Valuations in India, driven mainly by sustained liquidity flows, continue to be high, particularly in the mid and small-cap segments. The overvalued segments of the market, like defence and railways, are likely to come under pressure. The buy-on-dips strategy, which has worked well in this bull run, is likely to be threatened now. Investors need not rush to buy in this correction. Wait for the market to stabilise,” said Vijayakumar.

According to the equity research platform Trendline, the current PE (price to earnings) ratio of Nifty 50 is 23.1, above its two-year average PE of 21.9. The index’s PB (price to book) ratio, at 4.17, is slightly above its two-year average PB of 4.09.

4. Unimpressive Q1 result

India Inc.’s June quarter (Q1FY25) result has been mixed and failed to cheer market sentiment. As the current market valuation remains high, experts fear the earnings may not be able to sustain it.

The rally in the recent past has been supported by earnings growth, but experts see some moderation in the earnings of several sectors, which has potentially triggered some profit booking in the market.

5. Technical factor: Nifty 50 falls below 20-DMA

The Nifty 50 fell below the 20-day moving average, which signals weak market sentiment.

“Nifty has support at the budget day low of 24075, with the next support at the 50-DMA around 23900. Below this, the major support lies at the 23300 level. On the upside, 24800-25000 will remain a key resistance area,” said Meena of Swastika Investmart.

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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts, and brokerage firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.