Starlink has played a crucial role in Ukraine’s war efforts, providing satellite links for communication, target identification, and sharing videos. Its jam-resistant system poses a disadvantage to Russia, China’s ally, and raises concerns about Taiwan, a self-governing island claimed by China. If Taiwan were given access to Starlink, it would significantly complicate a potential Chinese invasion.
However, China’s concerns extend beyond Taiwan. It fears that the United States, through Starlink, is monopolizing territory in low-Earth orbit. China aspires to become a power in this domain and desires the capabilities offered by systems like Starlink. Hence, China is developing its own version.
Cutting the Cord
Analysts believe that if China were to invade Taiwan, it might start by severing the 14 undersea internet cables that connect the island to the rest of the world. In response, Taiwan is expanding its cable infrastructure and testing antennae in various locations, including outside Taiwan. These antennae would enable communication via satellites in low orbit, similar to Starlink’s system. The goal is to ensure their mobility for survival during an attack, according to Tzeng Yisuo, from Taiwan’s Institute for National Defence and Security Research.
China possesses the capability to shoot down satellites. However, Starlink comprises over 4,000 satellites with the aim of deploying tens of thousands more. China may attempt to exert pressure on Elon Musk, founder of SpaceX, to deny Taiwan access to Starlink. Notably, Tesla, Musk’s other major company, operates a factory in Shanghai. In the past, Musk even suggested granting China some control over Taiwan to resolve their dispute. (Although Starlink lists Taiwan as a future location, the company has not yet applied to operate there commercially.)
As expected, Taiwan seeks to reduce its reliance on external sources. Its space agency is developing its own low-orbit communication satellites, with the first launch expected in 2025.
China has grander ambitions in low orbit. In 2020, the Chinese government submitted papers to the International Telecommunication Union, outlining plans for a 12,992-satellite constellation. The government also established China Satellite Networks Group Limited, tasking it with developing satellite internet. Multiple state-owned and private Chinese companies are setting up satellite factories to produce hundreds of small communication satellites annually.
Chinese officials have adopted a space-race mentality. The Liberation Army Daily warned in 2022 that specific orbits and radio frequencies are “rare strategic resources” that Starlink seeks to monopolize. Last year, Wu Yansheng, chairman of China’s main space contractor, emphasized the need to accelerate China’s space power status. In April, Prime Minister Li Qiang visited three startups to underscore the importance of their industries, including Galaxy Space, a satellite manufacturer that launched six satellites into low orbit last year.
Much of this activity stems from Xi Jinping’s goal of modernizing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Chinese military leaders have long studied the US’s effective use of communications and information tools for faster decision-making on the battlefield. Mr. Xi aims to establish a highly “informatized” force capable of conducting joint operations across land, air, sea, space, and cyberspace.
The Crowded Sky
China will not be the only presence in low orbit apart from SpaceX. The British government has a stake in OneWeb, which is completing a constellation of 650 satellites. Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, is financing the Kuiper constellation, which is preparing to launch its first test satellites. The European Union and Russia also have plans for their own satellite systems. Satellite internet is increasingly viewed as a strategic capability, similar to satellite navigation, necessitating a degree of sovereign control.
SpaceX enjoys a significant advantage. Satellites in low orbit have limited lifespans, requiring regular replacements. SpaceX has the world’s most efficient system for this, utilizing the partially reusable Falcon 9 rocket. The company is currently developing the Starship, a fully reusable spacecraft that can launch hundreds of satellites simultaneously. Some Chinese companies appear to be attempting to replicate this technology.
China is concerned about this surge of activity. The Liberation Army Daily has expressed concerns that Starlink may eventually occupy over 80% of the space in low-Earth orbit, which can accommodate around 50,000 satellites. However, assessing the situation is more complex than the number of satellites alone, asserts Juliana Suess from the Royal United Services Institute. She likens low orbit to a highway and emphasizes the importance of calculating how many satellites it can safely accommodate based on size and trajectories.
In 2021, two Starlink satellites were reportedly on a collision course with a Chinese space station, necessitating evasive action. China and the US offer conflicting accounts, possibly due to differing orbit calculation methods and varying perceptions of safe distances. Lack of communication and norms relating to traffic in low orbit exacerbated the problem. Since 2017, there have been no bilateral discussions on these matters between the US and China, which poses a growing danger as low orbit becomes more crowded and collision risks increase.
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Deepak Sen is a tech enthusiast who covers the latest technological innovations, from AI to consumer gadgets. His articles provide readers with a glimpse into the ever-evolving world of technology.
