For the first time in 19 years, an Australian Open men’s singles final won’t feature either Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic. And, hence, for the first time in a decade, the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup is guaranteed to be in the hands of a player not part of the famed Big Three. Djokovic’s historic streak was crushed on Friday as the defending champion was handed him his first loss at Melbourne Park in 2195 days, which comprised 33 straight wins, en route to 4 consecutive titles, by Jannik Sinner, who admitted to having taken his game to a whole new level in the last fortnight, in the semis. The Italian will be up against two-time finalist in Melbourne, Daniil Medvedev, who came back from the brink in a thrilling five-setter against Alexander Zverev. As the two get ready for the ultimate showdown on the iconic Rod Laver Arena on Sunday evening, we take a look at their journey at the 2024 Australian Open, their past battles, and draw up the tactics board to predict the winner…
How did Sinner and Medvedev reach the 2024 Australian Open final?
Medvedev, who had previously reached the Australian Open final in 2021 and 2022, spent a whopping 20 hours and a half hours on the court across six matches, which comprised only one straight-set win, against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the third round. Three others went down to the wire – against Emil Ruusuvuori in the second round, Hubert Hurkacz in the quarterfinal and Zverev in the semifinal.
Sinner, on the other hand, who dropped just one set en route to the final, against Djokovic, in a match where he did not face a single break point, spent only five hours and 49 minutes on the court. He beat Botic van de Zandschulp in the first round, Jesper De Jong in the second, Sebastian Baez in the third, Karen Khachanov in the fourth and Andrey Rublev in the quarters before scripting the biggest win of his career in the semis.
What milestones are at stake for Sinner and Medvedev in the 2024 Australian Open final?
If Sinner wins his maiden Grand Slam title on Sunday, the 22-year-old will become the youngest to lift the Australian Open trophy since a 20-year-old Djokovic had won in 2008. He will also become the first Italian player in history to win a major in Melbourne and the second man in the Open Era to claim a Slam after Adriano Panatta had won the 1976 French Open.
Meanwhile, Medvedev, who will be hoping to add to his 2021 US Open haul, can become the first Russian man since Marat Safin in 2005 to win the Australian Open title and third overall with Yevgeny Kafelnikov (1999) being the other. The win would also make the world No. 3 only the sixth active men’s player to win multiple majors, joining Djokovic, Nadal, Alcaraz, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka.
Have Sinner and Medvedev faced each other previously on the ATP tour?
They have faced each other nine times, all on hard courts, on the ATP tour, the first of it going back to 2020, with Medvedev leading the head-to-head rivalry 6-3. However, Sinner won all their last three meetings which included the final in Vienna and Beijing and a semifinal in Turin. Incidentally, this will be their first-ever encounter in a Grand Slam event.
Where Sinner and Medvedev Australian Open final will be decided?
One of the crucial aspects of Sinner’s ability to have turned the tables in his rivalry against Medvedev, having won three consecutive matches against him, is down to his willingness to approach the net more often and take advantage of the Russian’s deep return position, while also showing remarkable improvement on his serve.
“He did a little more serve-and-volley, maybe a little more aggressive, but at the same time that’s what he’s doing against everyone,” Medvedev said on his last three encounters with Sinner. “He’s just playing better. “The three matches, all of them were tough. Two tie-breaks and two three-setters. I had my chances. All of them were in the end of the season where I felt like I was not at my 100 per cent, even if I was playing pretty good. I was maybe at 97, 96 per cent, and against him you need to be at 100.”
The match-up will be down to Sinner’s serve. While the two are almost inseparable on first-serve win percentage (Sinner’s 78 to Medvedev’s 75), the Italian is more effective on his second deliveries, winning 60 per cent of the points, compared to his opponent’s 48. The 22-year-old also dominates under pressure, as he leads the chart for the break points saved on the tour in the last 12 months. Through the course of this very tournament, he has been broken just twice in 88 games so far, and did not give a single break point to Djokovic. And here is where the battle will be – Medvedev tops the chart for the most break points converted (46.4 per cent in the same period).
Who will win Sinner and Medvedev Australian Open final?
There were multiple occasions when Medvedev was on the brink of an exit in Melbourne, but it has been his resilience that paid off. He has the experience of playing in a Grand Slam final, and knows what it takes to win the elusive title. Moreover, for the first time, he will not be facing a Nadal or a Djokovic in a major final. But Sinner has been in the form of his life, this has been his moment. You want to argue about the nerves of not being at this stage before in his career, but the Italian looks more assured or sounded than ever.
Winner: Sinner in four sets.
Hasibur Rahaman is a passionate sports journalist. He covers everything from cricket to field hockey, delivering up-to-the-minute updates and in-depth analysis of sporting events, both within India and on the international stage.
